Forex Morning Commentary 16th February 2009

Forex

Gut Feeling

Much confusion in the market as all the markets senior policy makers failed to offer anything new with the various rescue plans. I still think the level of 9.85 is bottomish and I expect the market to be a bit quiet with the holiday in the USA. The trading range once again for the ZAR seems to be 9.75 to 10.40. I keep stating that the market would reverse its position and I see the ZAR back above 10.00. Market must exercise caution, as the market seems to be clueless on what to do. Keep an eye on Gold over the next few months as a safe haven commodity. Importers should start to look at covering on a % basis their proceeds and not miss the levels below 10.00. I think if there is no clarity on the stimulus packages, the uncertainty will cause people to look at risk aversion once again and the carry trades will start to be executed at the expense of the emerging markets.

Data Releases

Wednesday        US Housing Starts, Import Prices, Industrial Prod

Thursday           US Jobless claims, PPI,

Friday               US CPI, Real Earnings

Rates

USD / ZAR       10.0000/10.0500

EUR / ZAR       12.7958/12.8558

GBP / ZAR       14.2308/14.2508

ZAR / JPY       9.1179/9.1379

EUR / USD      1.2733/1.2744

GBP / USD      1.4158/1.4168

USD / JPY       91.67/91.77

Morning Commentary